Hverskonar frétt er þetta?

Þetta Actim módel er svo gjörsamlega tilgangslaust, ég býð fólki sem veit meira en ungabarn um fótbolta (þú þarft ekki einu sinni að vita hversu margir eru í liði) til að skoða stigagjöfina og hugsa aðeins um hvernig stigin eru gefin.

 

Betri frétt væri að blaðamenn væru farnir að taka mark á tölfræðimódelum sem eru álíka góð að dæma frammistöðu leikmanna og Mark Lawrenson er að tippa á Úrvalsdeildina

Grétar Rafn fyrir ofan Cristiano Ronaldo

Athugasemdir

[GP (IP-tala skráð) 18.12.2008 kl. 09:32]

hér er gagnrýni á Actim sem mér fannst vera nokkuð viðeigandi:

It’s a relief that many newspapers, football sites and shows are now using their own statistic tools and formulas – Actim Index, the statistical gizmo being coveted by many delusional footie-forum punter is pretty embarrassing when examined more closely.

Even more embarrassing than the actual act of examining Actim Index more closely. Cough.

Where I would say “What? Frank chuffin’ Lampard is a better footballer than X,Y,Z?! Your SIS he is, Actim stupidex”, better educated critics have suggested more eloquently that the system has a disproportionate bias towards goal scorers and attacking players.

Looking at the bias towards attacking players, take these calculations as a good example:

- Shot On Target (SOT) = 3 points
- Goal (G) = + 7 points
- Match Winning Goal (MWG) = + 2 points
- From Set-Piece (SP) = + 3 points

Is that right? A goal could get you anything between 10 and 15 points? In contrast:

- (Goal Keeper) Save (SV) = 2 points
- Winning Tackle (TW) = 0.5 points
- Last Man Saving Tackle = (ST) 2 points

Hang on. So Petr Cech makes 5 game winning saves, and he is on the same points that weekend as Peter Crouch who slams the ball at a defenders nugget and watches it bounce unpredictably into the net? William Gallas wears himself into the ground making 19 tackles in a single game, and falls a point short of his team mate Adebayor who taps in a sitter from 2 yards? If John Terry wanted to play Ronaldo in an Actim Stats competition, and beaver-faced Ron scores a free-kick in a 1-0 victory against West Brom, it would leave ol’ grow-a-beard-before-he-catches-you ‘Jay-Tee’ needing to save the day with last ditch tackles EIGHT TIMES in his fixture to compete!

Other flaws with the formula are with the rewards for passing. While an assist (A) can get you 4 points (that’s 8 tackles from Vidic or two Petr Cech saves for those of you who wouldn’t circle ‘Maths’ and ‘Memory’ in a ‘Strong Points’ questionnaire) and a successful cross (SC) get’s you one point, there is no reward for completing a decent pass anywhere else in the game.

Defenders, or midfielders (who don’t have to play like greedy second strikers because they can actually cope with the further requirements of a real midfield role), won’t pick up anything for tidy passes, or even starting an attacking move which leads to a goal…

That means when Carrick wins the ball from a tackle, and finds Rooney with a glorious cross-field pass which completely breaks open the defence, giving Wayne the chance to lay a short ball to Ronaldo who fires it into the net to win the game for Utd, the point tally is as follows:

Ronaldo = 12 points
Rooney = 4 points
Carrick = 0.5 points

Er, thanks Carrick. Have a lollipop.

This nonsense aside, the fact that “calculation 1” scores you according to how well the rest of the team scored as means of “assessing your contribution to team performance” (are you serious, Actim?) just goes to show how ignorable the system is. Play for a big club littered with Actim darlings and chances are you are going to be filling your swimming pool with points, while those less fortunate left carrying a team of turnips ends up being punished for having to work harder!

While I appreciate statistics never show the full picture, and perhaps assessment of any decidedly accurate level would be close to impossible, Actim Index is about as fair as needing a poo right after you’ve had a bath.

Opta can eat my shreddies an all...